055

ACUS3 KMKC 040624

SWOMCD

MKC MCD 040624

TXZ000-OKZ000-041130-



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644 FOR PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND WRN

OK...CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...



SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL PERSIST IN A BAND FROM WRN PORTIONS

TX SOUTH PLAINS NEWD TOWARD OK BORDER NEAR I-40...POSSIBLY

DEVELOPING/PIVOTING CLOCKWISE TO SWRN OK AND SWRN PORTIONS TX

PANHANDLE.  RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES

WITH MORE GENERAL 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD

EXTEND FROM BAILEY/PARMER/CASTRO COUNTIES TX ENEWD TOWARD

BECKHAM/GREER/HARMON COUNTIES OK.



ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE IN ENVIRONMENT OF 

INTENSE...MOISTURE RICH INFLOW AND STRONG LIFT INVOF BAROCLINIC

ZONE REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FORECAST

SOUNDINGS YIELD 1500-2200 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE -- WITH 40-50 KT SR

INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE AND DIABATICALLY COOLED BOUNDARY

LAYER.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH PW 1-1.5

INCHES AND RH AOA 75% THROUGH MUCH OF LOWEST 5 KFT AGL.  TSTMS

SHOULD BE VRY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  

ALSO...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE S OF ONGOING

BOUNDARY IN MOIST SECTOR...AND SOME OF THESE CELLS WILL MERGE INTO

ONGOING BAND TO EXACERBATE RAINFALL PROBLEM.



INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STRONG MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST

THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM SOME OF THE MORE

PERSISTENT/INTENSE CELLS...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL

FOR WW.



..EDWARDS.. 05/04/01



--- ON THE INTERNET...REFER TO HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/MD

    FOR GRAPHIC MAP.








055

ACUS3 KMKC 040624

SWOMCD

MKC MCD 040624

TXZ000-OKZ000-041130-



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644 FOR PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND WRN

OK...CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...



SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL PERSIST IN A BAND FROM WRN PORTIONS

TX SOUTH PLAINS NEWD TOWARD OK BORDER NEAR I-40...POSSIBLY

DEVELOPING/PIVOTING CLOCKWISE TO SWRN OK AND SWRN PORTIONS TX

PANHANDLE.  RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES

WITH MORE GENERAL 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD

EXTEND FROM BAILEY/PARMER/CASTRO COUNTIES TX ENEWD TOWARD

BECKHAM/GREER/HARMON COUNTIES OK.



ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE IN ENVIRONMENT OF 

INTENSE...MOISTURE RICH INFLOW AND STRONG LIFT INVOF BAROCLINIC

ZONE REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FORECAST

SOUNDINGS YIELD 1500-2200 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE -- WITH 40-50 KT SR

INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE AND DIABATICALLY COOLED BOUNDARY

LAYER.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH PW 1-1.5

INCHES AND RH AOA 75% THROUGH MUCH OF LOWEST 5 KFT AGL.  TSTMS

SHOULD BE VRY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  

ALSO...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE S OF ONGOING

BOUNDARY IN MOIST SECTOR...AND SOME OF THESE CELLS WILL MERGE INTO

ONGOING BAND TO EXACERBATE RAINFALL PROBLEM.



INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STRONG MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST

THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM SOME OF THE MORE

PERSISTENT/INTENSE CELLS...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL

FOR WW.



..EDWARDS.. 05/04/01



--- ON THE INTERNET...REFER TO HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/MD

    FOR GRAPHIC MAP.