881

FXUS64 KOUN 020859

AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

400 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS GUESS FOR FRONTAL 

POSITION AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.  TODAY THE NGM HAS JOINED 

THE AVN CAMP WITH KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE ETA 

REMAINS GUNG HO WITH THE PUSH OF THE COOL AIR.  THIS DIFFERENCE IN 

FRONTAL LOCATION WILL IMPACT POPS AS WELL AS TEMPS.  WITH THE 

CURRENT MOVEMENT AND THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN WYOMING EARLIER 

THIS EVENING... AM INCLINED TO LEAN WITH THE FASTER ETA SOLUTION.  

ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND/OR TOMORROW 

NIGHT MAY ALSO ACT TO NUDGE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY SOUTH.



SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO 

FINALLY GET NUDGED OUT TODAY AND MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND INTO 

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 00Z AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST FROM THERE.  

THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE SECOND 

PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.  50 KNOT 

SOUTHERLY WIND AT 850 MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO 

CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND ALSO ENHANCE LIFT INVOF FRONTAL 

POSITION.  AM UNSURE ABOUT WARM SECTOR PRECIP GIVEN THE RELATIVELY 

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT... BUT THINK CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN 

THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA WITH THE 

PROXIMITY OF THE BAJA VORT MAX.  THERE SHOULD BE A RESPITE ON THE 

BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TOMORROW MORNING... BUT WITH FRONT IN THE 

AREA WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE THIRD PERIOD FOR LINGERING 

MORNING PRECIP AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT.  

EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY 

THURSDAY NIGHT SO RETAINING RELATIVELY HIGH POPS... ESPECIALLY 

NORTHWEST.



MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES OF OPINION ABOUT THE 

EXTENDED PERIOD.  WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE 

EXTENDED.



...SPEG.

OKC   85  63  76  62 /  20  30  30  40

HBR   87  63  77  61 /  20  30  30  40

SPS   88  64  81  63 /  20  30  30  40

GAG   82  58  72  56 /  20  50  40  50

PNC   85  61  73  59 /  20  30  30  40

DUA   85  65  80  64 /   0  10  20  30



.OUN...

OK...NONE.

TX...NONE.