415 FXUS64 KOUN 022049 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 330 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 TCU BEGINNING BUBBLE UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DECENT DAYTIME HEATING IS SUPPORTING TCU DEVELOPMENT. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE MESOETA INDICATING CAP WILL TEND TO HOLD MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DRYLINE REMAINS RATHER ILL-DEFINED. IF IT DOES BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON... IT WILL LIKELY QUICKLY RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE WEST AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. FOR TONIGHT... WILL GO WITH BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHWEST... DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MOST OF THE PUSH ON THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN DIRECTED TO THE SOUTH... THUS ITS GREATEST ADVANCE HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST TEXAS. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA... DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS. FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LONGER TERM... MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HANDLING OF ANOTHER UPPER LOWER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. AS THIS TIME... WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... AND WILL WAIT FOR A STRONGER SIGNAL IN THE SOLUTION BEFORE AJUSTING VALUES TOO MUCH. FCSTID = 32 OKC 65 80 64 75 / 20 30 30 40 HBR 64 82 63 75 / 30 40 40 50 SPS 65 84 64 78 / 20 30 40 50 GAG 57 74 56 74 / 40 40 50 50 PNC 63 80 63 76 / 30 30 40 40 DUA 66 80 65 76 / 10 10 20 40 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.  415 FXUS64 KOUN 022049 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 330 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 TCU BEGINNING BUBBLE UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DECENT DAYTIME HEATING IS SUPPORTING TCU DEVELOPMENT. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE MESOETA INDICATING CAP WILL TEND TO HOLD MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DRYLINE REMAINS RATHER ILL-DEFINED. IF IT DOES BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON... IT WILL LIKELY QUICKLY RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE WEST AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. FOR TONIGHT... WILL GO WITH BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHWEST... DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MOST OF THE PUSH ON THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN DIRECTED TO THE SOUTH... THUS ITS GREATEST ADVANCE HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST TEXAS. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA... DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT FORMS. FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LONGER TERM... MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HANDLING OF ANOTHER UPPER LOWER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. AS THIS TIME... WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... AND WILL WAIT FOR A STRONGER SIGNAL IN THE SOLUTION BEFORE AJUSTING VALUES TOO MUCH. FCSTID = 32 OKC 65 80 64 75 / 20 30 30 40 HBR 64 82 63 75 / 30 40 40 50 SPS 65 84 64 78 / 20 30 40 50 GAG 57 74 56 74 / 40 40 50 50 PNC 63 80 63 76 / 30 30 40 40 DUA 66 80 65 76 / 10 10 20 40 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.