430

FXUS64 KOUN 030817

AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

317 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM... 

THEY ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.    THERE ARE 

IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN FOR A WHILE 

IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ETA IS STILL A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN 

BRINGING IT OUT INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE 

THE AVN HOLDS IT BACK IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  AT THE SURFACE 

THERE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION TODAY WITH THE 

ETA A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT ALL WANT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY 

NORTHWARD EVENTUALLY.



DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THE CRUX OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE MAIN 

TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST INTO SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE VARIOUS 

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES 

OVER THE AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOMING SATURATED THROUGH A 

LARGE DEPTH BY TOMORROW.  THUS POPS.  WILL GO AHEAD WITH LIKELY POPS 

TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE 

PROXIMITY.



...SPEG.

OKC   78  64  75  62 /  20  30  40  40

HBR   77  63  75  61 /  30  40  50  40

SPS   81  64  77  62 /  30  30  40  40

GAG   72  56  70  58 /  50  70  50  40

PNC   78  63  74  62 /  30  40  40  40

DUA   82  64  76  63 /  10  20  30  30



.OUN...

OK...NONE.

TX...NONE.










430

FXUS64 KOUN 030817

AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

317 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM... 

THEY ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.    THERE ARE 

IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN FOR A WHILE 

IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ETA IS STILL A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN 

BRINGING IT OUT INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE 

THE AVN HOLDS IT BACK IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  AT THE SURFACE 

THERE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION TODAY WITH THE 

ETA A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT ALL WANT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY 

NORTHWARD EVENTUALLY.



DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THE CRUX OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE MAIN 

TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST INTO SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE VARIOUS 

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES 

OVER THE AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOMING SATURATED THROUGH A 

LARGE DEPTH BY TOMORROW.  THUS POPS.  WILL GO AHEAD WITH LIKELY POPS 

TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE 

PROXIMITY.



...SPEG.

OKC   78  64  75  62 /  20  30  40  40

HBR   77  63  75  61 /  30  40  50  40

SPS   81  64  77  62 /  30  30  40  40

GAG   72  56  70  58 /  50  70  50  40

PNC   78  63  74  62 /  30  40  40  40

DUA   82  64  76  63 /  10  20  30  30



.OUN...

OK...NONE.

TX...NONE.