719 FXUS64 KOUN 031852 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 152 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 LATEST UA AND SFC ANALYS INDICATED CLOSED UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVR SRN UTAH ATTM..WITH ANOTHER FARILY STRONG MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF BAJA. MEANWHILE..UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MIGRATED EASTWARD..ALLOWING A BETTER HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MID LEVELS TO DEVELOP OVR THE SRN PLAINS THEN HAS EXISTED IN QUITE SOME TIME. SFC FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NC MO SWWD ACROS NW OK AND INTO FAR WTEX ATTM. FORECAST THRU SUNDAY APPEARS EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY DUE TO CUMULATIVE COMPLICATING FACTORS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS AFTER CONVECTIVE EPISODES. IN THE SHORT TERM..BROAD ENTRANCE REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN OK TO NEAR MKC. DEVELOPMENT OF SH/TSRA HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WTEX THRU THE AFTERNOON AND THESE STORMS SHUD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. BIG SURGE OF WAA/MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY THE NEW ETA FRIDAY NITE..WHICH SHUD INDUCE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUDS AND PRECIP..BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHUD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NW THRU FRIDAY..AS COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLN OF MOVING MAIN UPPER TROF OUT INTO THE PLAINS SAT EVENING..WHICH SHUD BRING A ROUND OF SVR STORMS TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. DETAILS ARE STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME..BUT CUD BE INTERESTING ESP IF SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX IS ABLE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. SUNDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS EWD AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO MN. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS COOLER AND DRY..AT LEAST BASED ON LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST BY MID WEEK. MILLER FIRST CUT AT NUMBERS.. OKC 65 76 64 78 / 40 40 60 30 HBR 63 77 64 80 / 40 60 60 40 SPS 64 78 65 80 / 40 60 60 40 GAG 56 70 58 76 / 70 60 40 30 PNC 65 78 64 79 / 30 40 30 30 DUA 66 79 66 80 / 20 20 10 20 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.  719 FXUS64 KOUN 031852 AFDOKC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 152 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 LATEST UA AND SFC ANALYS INDICATED CLOSED UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVR SRN UTAH ATTM..WITH ANOTHER FARILY STRONG MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF BAJA. MEANWHILE..UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MIGRATED EASTWARD..ALLOWING A BETTER HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MID LEVELS TO DEVELOP OVR THE SRN PLAINS THEN HAS EXISTED IN QUITE SOME TIME. SFC FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NC MO SWWD ACROS NW OK AND INTO FAR WTEX ATTM. FORECAST THRU SUNDAY APPEARS EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY DUE TO CUMULATIVE COMPLICATING FACTORS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS AFTER CONVECTIVE EPISODES. IN THE SHORT TERM..BROAD ENTRANCE REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN OK TO NEAR MKC. DEVELOPMENT OF SH/TSRA HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WTEX THRU THE AFTERNOON AND THESE STORMS SHUD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. BIG SURGE OF WAA/MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY THE NEW ETA FRIDAY NITE..WHICH SHUD INDUCE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUDS AND PRECIP..BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHUD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NW THRU FRIDAY..AS COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLN OF MOVING MAIN UPPER TROF OUT INTO THE PLAINS SAT EVENING..WHICH SHUD BRING A ROUND OF SVR STORMS TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. DETAILS ARE STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME..BUT CUD BE INTERESTING ESP IF SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX IS ABLE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. SUNDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS EWD AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO MN. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS COOLER AND DRY..AT LEAST BASED ON LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST BY MID WEEK. MILLER FIRST CUT AT NUMBERS.. OKC 65 76 64 78 / 40 40 60 30 HBR 63 77 64 80 / 40 60 60 40 SPS 64 78 65 80 / 40 60 60 40 GAG 56 70 58 76 / 70 60 40 30 PNC 65 78 64 79 / 30 40 30 30 DUA 66 79 66 80 / 20 20 10 20 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.