557

FXUS64 KOUN 040929

AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

400 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



TSTMS PRODUCING HVY RAIN CONT TO SPREAD INTO WRN BORDER COUNTIES 

THIS MORNING. TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MESONET 

SITE AT ARNETT SHOWING NEAR 1 3/4 INCHES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. 

OUTFLO FROM TSTM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO REINFORCE LO LVL BNDRY AND HOLD 

IT IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY KEEP 

EFFECTIVE SFC BNDRY FRTHR S THAN MODELS INDICATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 

IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NRN MEX ON SAT LOOP EXPECTED TO 

AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS TX WHICH WILL BE 

SPREADING INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY. LO LVL JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN 

STG TODAY WITH AREA ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD 

OF DVLPG UPR JET OVER TX. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO HIGH 

WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FFA FOR WRN AREAS WHERE HEAVY PRECIP IS 

FALLING THIS MORNING AND WHERE LO LVL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL 

HVY PRECIP LATER TODAY. SOME DIFF IN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT 

OF UPR LO AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SVR WX 

THRT WILL LIKELY BE GREATER SAT AS UPR TROF SWINGS EWD AND DRY LINE 

PUNCHES INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PROGS INDICATE CLD COVER WILL 

BE LESS EXTENSIVE IN THE WEST ON SAT WHICH WUD ALLOW FOR MORE 

HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THAT 

FAR OUT HOW FRIDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT SITUATION. 



FCSTID = 2

OKC   73  63  76  59 /  60  70  60  60

HBR   70  60  80  57 / 100  80  40  40

SPS   74  63  80  60 /  80  80  40  60

GAG   65  55  78  53 / 100  80  40  40

PNC   76  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60

DUA   79  64  77  61 /  30  60  60  60



.OUN...

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ZONES OKZ009-014>016-021-022-033>036. 

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ZONE TXZ083.


















557

FXUS64 KOUN 040929

AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

400 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



TSTMS PRODUCING HVY RAIN CONT TO SPREAD INTO WRN BORDER COUNTIES 

THIS MORNING. TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MESONET 

SITE AT ARNETT SHOWING NEAR 1 3/4 INCHES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. 

OUTFLO FROM TSTM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO REINFORCE LO LVL BNDRY AND HOLD 

IT IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY KEEP 

EFFECTIVE SFC BNDRY FRTHR S THAN MODELS INDICATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 

IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NRN MEX ON SAT LOOP EXPECTED TO 

AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS TX WHICH WILL BE 

SPREADING INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY. LO LVL JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN 

STG TODAY WITH AREA ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD 

OF DVLPG UPR JET OVER TX. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO HIGH 

WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FFA FOR WRN AREAS WHERE HEAVY PRECIP IS 

FALLING THIS MORNING AND WHERE LO LVL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL 

HVY PRECIP LATER TODAY. SOME DIFF IN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT 

OF UPR LO AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SVR WX 

THRT WILL LIKELY BE GREATER SAT AS UPR TROF SWINGS EWD AND DRY LINE 

PUNCHES INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PROGS INDICATE CLD COVER WILL 

BE LESS EXTENSIVE IN THE WEST ON SAT WHICH WUD ALLOW FOR MORE 

HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THAT 

FAR OUT HOW FRIDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT SITUATION. 



FCSTID = 2

OKC   73  63  76  59 /  60  70  60  60

HBR   70  60  80  57 / 100  80  40  40

SPS   74  63  80  60 /  80  80  40  60

GAG   65  55  78  53 / 100  80  40  40

PNC   76  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60

DUA   79  64  77  61 /  30  60  60  60



.OUN...

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ZONES OKZ009-014>016-021-022-033>036. 

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ZONE TXZ083.