365

FNUS75 KPUB 021224

FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SULLIVAN CREEK RX

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO

612 AM MDT WED MAY 2 2001



***PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON***



.DISCUSSION...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BURN

SITE TODAY. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS

FORECASTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY...WHICH SHOULD

STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BURN SITE TODAY. THIS

WILL INTRODUCE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TODAY...WITH A

CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORE

WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY...RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT

AND THURSDAY.

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THIS AFTERNOON

.WEATHER...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER

1100

.MAX TEMP...51-56 F

.MIN RH...38-48%

.20 FOOT WIND...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8-13 MPH BY 0900...WITH SOUTHWEST

20-30 MPH ACROSS HIGHER EXPOSED AREAS

.TRANSPORT WIND...SOUTHWEST 25 MPH

.MIXING HEIGHT...INCREASING TO 6000 FEET AGL BY 1000

.SMOKE DISPERSAL...BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1000

.HAINES INDEX...2...VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES

.LAL...1



TONIGHT

.WEATHER...CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...CHANGING TO ALL

SNOW AFTER 2100

.MIN TEMP...33-38 F

.MAX RH...80-90% WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERY.

.20 FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE 4-8 MPH IN SHELTERED AREAS AFTER

2100...OTHERWISE EAST-NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 25-35

MPH ACROSS HIGHER EXPOSED AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS

.TRANSPORT WIND...EAST 20-30 MPH

.MIXING HEIGHT...DECREASING TO 1500 FEET AGL AFTER 1900

.SMOKE DISPERSAL...BECOMING POOR AFTER 1900

.HAINES INDEX...2...VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES

.LAL...1



TOMORROW (THURS 5/3/01)

.WEATHER...CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY

.MAX TEMP...40-45 F

.MIN RH...48-58%

.20 FOOT WIND...EAST-NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH

.TRANSPORT WIND...EAST 15-25 MPH

.MIXING HEIGHT...SOMEWHAT STEADY AT AROUND 2000 FEET AGL

.SMOKE DISPERSAL...POOR TO FAIR

.HAINES INDEX...2...VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES

.LAL...1



***EVALUATION OF SPOT FORECAST***

PLEASE EVALUATE THE FOLLOWING FORECAST PARAMETERS:

WIND...TEMPERATURE...HUMIDITY...SKY/WEATHER



DO YOU HAVE ANY OTHER COMMENTS?

PLEASE FAX OR CALL IN YOUR EVALUATION TO THE NWS AT PUEBLO

FAX: (719) 948 9729, VOICE: (719) 948 9429 



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