926 FXUS65 KPUB 030852 AFDPUB SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 255 AM MDT THU MAY 3 2001 ...SNOW...HOW LOW...HOW MUCH...AND HOW LONG?... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IN THE AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN HEAVY...SNOW LEVELS HAVE MADE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. BUT...IN GENERAL...ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER JUST A BIT MORE THROUGH THE THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE RISING GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY MEAN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION DOWN TO ABOUT THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL ALSO MEAN UP TO A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5500 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION AFTER 6 AM...WITH A DRY SLOT INDICATED IN MODEL RH FIELDS AND SATELLITE PICTURES MOVING IN BEHIND IT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. ALSO...DYNAMICS WILL TAIL OFF AT THIS TIME...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE HAS GONE BY. THIS WILL TEND THINGS TOWARD LIGHTER PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION (AND THE MODELS STARTING TO INDICATE SOME WARMING TO OCCUR AT MID LEVELS) IT WILL BE HARDER TO MAINTAIN THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY...SO I EXPECT THEY WILL RISE GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. THE MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW...DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEIR OROGRAPHY. BOILS DOWN TO THIS. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR UP TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL UPGRADE TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR UP TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL UPGRADE TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR UP TO 6 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR PUEBLO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WILL CANCEL WATCH AND NOT GO WITH ANY HIGHLIGHTS. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING IS NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OR SAN LUIS VALLEY AS GOOD MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE LACKING THERE. NOW...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND THEN EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERMAL FIELDS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME AS UPPER LOW MATURES AND FILLS...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE GRADUALLY WANING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY COULD STILL BE TOUCH-AND-GO DOWN TO ABOUT 5500 FEET. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. AND STILL A RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET FOR FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN... ...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR ANY SURPRISES. 5/3 00Z MRF INDICATES CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS REASONABLE. MRF INDICATES A LARGE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN US...LEAVING COLORADO UNDER A SLIGHTLY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. SO WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS GOOD. .PUB...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR 58/59/65/66/67/68/69/70/71/72 LW  926 FXUS65 KPUB 030852 AFDPUB SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 255 AM MDT THU MAY 3 2001 ...SNOW...HOW LOW...HOW MUCH...AND HOW LONG?... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IN THE AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN HEAVY...SNOW LEVELS HAVE MADE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. BUT...IN GENERAL...ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER JUST A BIT MORE THROUGH THE THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE RISING GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY MEAN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION DOWN TO ABOUT THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL ALSO MEAN UP TO A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5500 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION AFTER 6 AM...WITH A DRY SLOT INDICATED IN MODEL RH FIELDS AND SATELLITE PICTURES MOVING IN BEHIND IT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. ALSO...DYNAMICS WILL TAIL OFF AT THIS TIME...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE HAS GONE BY. THIS WILL TEND THINGS TOWARD LIGHTER PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION (AND THE MODELS STARTING TO INDICATE SOME WARMING TO OCCUR AT MID LEVELS) IT WILL BE HARDER TO MAINTAIN THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY...SO I EXPECT THEY WILL RISE GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. THE MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW...DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEIR OROGRAPHY. BOILS DOWN TO THIS. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR UP TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL UPGRADE TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR UP TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL UPGRADE TO A SNOW ADVISORY FOR UP TO 6 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. FOR PUEBLO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WILL CANCEL WATCH AND NOT GO WITH ANY HIGHLIGHTS. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING IS NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OR SAN LUIS VALLEY AS GOOD MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE LACKING THERE. NOW...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND THEN EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERMAL FIELDS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME AS UPPER LOW MATURES AND FILLS...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE GRADUALLY WANING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY COULD STILL BE TOUCH-AND-GO DOWN TO ABOUT 5500 FEET. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. AND STILL A RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET FOR FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN... ...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR ANY SURPRISES. 5/3 00Z MRF INDICATES CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS REASONABLE. MRF INDICATES A LARGE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN US...LEAVING COLORADO UNDER A SLIGHTLY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. SO WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS GOOD. .PUB...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR 58/59/65/66/67/68/69/70/71/72 LW