226 FXUS65 KPUB 041000 AFDPUB SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 355 AM MDT FRI MAY 4 2001 ...WILL STAY THE COURSE ON HIGHLIGHTS...MORE HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS AND ABOVE 6000 FEET ON THE PLAINS...RISING RIVER LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS THE SNOW MELTS... WILL CONTINUE AND/OR EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TODAY AS NECESSARY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RESOLVE HIGHLIGHTS FOR LATER PERIODS. UPPER LOW WILL APPARENTLY TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN THIS SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH. FIRST ONE IS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THAT IS CURRENTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN MODEL FORECASTS. THIS ONE IS FIRING UP WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. IN FACT...IT ALREADY LOOKS TO BE TURNING INTO AN MCS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROBABLY VERY MOIST CONSIDERING ITS SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BE NOTICED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING. LOOKS LIKE MORE TO COME AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS NORTHWARD TODAY AND WRAPS UP INTO THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. ALL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY. TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW...EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ONCE AGAIN. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE SLOWLY RISING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WARM/FILL AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO START AROUND 6K THIS MORNING AND THEN RISE TO AROUND 7K TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREA WHERE VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP...STRONG DIABATIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD DRAG THE MELTING LEVEL DOWN TO 6K AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...EL PASO COUNTY IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. IT COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN BY TONIGHT...OR COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY WET SNOW. JUST DON'T KNOW FOR CERTAIN. ON SATURDAY...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOME DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING IN ALOFT. BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT... THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN INCREASE IN T-STORM POTENTIAL ON THE PLAINS. IN FACT...SOME COULD BE STRONG ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS MAY STILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHTER...AS THEY WILL BE FALLING FROM THE LESS DYNAMIC WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION CLOUD SHIELD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. BY SUNDAY...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OUT OF HERE AND A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP COLORADO UNDER A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THIS TIME OF YEAR...YOU HAVE TO START WORRYING ABOUT STRONG AND EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. BASED ON THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH...THE LEVEL OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR...AND MODEL/NCEP QPF FIELDS...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM SALIDA...TO TROUT CREEK PASS...TO LEADVILLE. SPOTTER REPORTS AND SNOW/WATER RATIO ESTIMATES INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER IN THIS SNOWPACK. THE MELTING OF THIS SNOW NEXT WEEK...PLUS THE MELTING OF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW THAT FALLS...PLUS THE RUNOFF FROM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS ON THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL ALL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO APPRECIABLE RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. BY SUNDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN AND THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MELT. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A COOL FLOW OF AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MELT OF THE SNOW AND ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF TIME FOR INFILTRATION AND RUNOFF TO OCCUR WITHOUT OVERWHELMING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. HOWEVER...IF THE WARMUP OCCURS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...WE COULD HAVE SOME CONCERNS. IN ANY EVENT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RISES ON SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVERS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN WHERE SO MUCH SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HEADWATERS REGION. LETS BE ALERT. THE WORLD NEEDS MORE LERTS. .PUB...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY ZONES...58/59/60/61/65>70 SNOW ADVISORY TODAY...ZONES 71/72  226 FXUS65 KPUB 041000 AFDPUB SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 355 AM MDT FRI MAY 4 2001 ...WILL STAY THE COURSE ON HIGHLIGHTS...MORE HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS AND ABOVE 6000 FEET ON THE PLAINS...RISING RIVER LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS THE SNOW MELTS... WILL CONTINUE AND/OR EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TODAY AS NECESSARY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RESOLVE HIGHLIGHTS FOR LATER PERIODS. UPPER LOW WILL APPARENTLY TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN THIS SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH. FIRST ONE IS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THAT IS CURRENTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN MODEL FORECASTS. THIS ONE IS FIRING UP WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. IN FACT...IT ALREADY LOOKS TO BE TURNING INTO AN MCS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROBABLY VERY MOIST CONSIDERING ITS SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BE NOTICED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING. LOOKS LIKE MORE TO COME AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS NORTHWARD TODAY AND WRAPS UP INTO THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. ALL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY. TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW...EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ONCE AGAIN. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE SLOWLY RISING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WARM/FILL AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO START AROUND 6K THIS MORNING AND THEN RISE TO AROUND 7K TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREA WHERE VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP...STRONG DIABATIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD DRAG THE MELTING LEVEL DOWN TO 6K AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...EL PASO COUNTY IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. IT COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN BY TONIGHT...OR COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY WET SNOW. JUST DON'T KNOW FOR CERTAIN. ON SATURDAY...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOME DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING IN ALOFT. BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT... THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN INCREASE IN T-STORM POTENTIAL ON THE PLAINS. IN FACT...SOME COULD BE STRONG ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS MAY STILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHTER...AS THEY WILL BE FALLING FROM THE LESS DYNAMIC WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION CLOUD SHIELD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. BY SUNDAY...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OUT OF HERE AND A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP COLORADO UNDER A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THIS TIME OF YEAR...YOU HAVE TO START WORRYING ABOUT STRONG AND EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. BASED ON THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH...THE LEVEL OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR...AND MODEL/NCEP QPF FIELDS...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM SALIDA...TO TROUT CREEK PASS...TO LEADVILLE. SPOTTER REPORTS AND SNOW/WATER RATIO ESTIMATES INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER IN THIS SNOWPACK. THE MELTING OF THIS SNOW NEXT WEEK...PLUS THE MELTING OF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW THAT FALLS...PLUS THE RUNOFF FROM POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS ON THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL ALL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO APPRECIABLE RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. BY SUNDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN AND THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MELT. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A COOL FLOW OF AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MELT OF THE SNOW AND ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF TIME FOR INFILTRATION AND RUNOFF TO OCCUR WITHOUT OVERWHELMING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. HOWEVER...IF THE WARMUP OCCURS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...WE COULD HAVE SOME CONCERNS. IN ANY EVENT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RISES ON SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVERS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN WHERE SO MUCH SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HEADWATERS REGION. LETS BE ALERT. THE WORLD NEEDS MORE LERTS. .PUB...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY ZONES...58/59/60/61/65>70 SNOW ADVISORY TODAY...ZONES 71/72