468

FXUS63 KSGF 020640

AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

140 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2001



MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS: TSRA CHANCES AND TEMPS. 



STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG RIGHT REAR QUADRANT 

OF MAIN JET/85H NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTH OF SURFACE COLD 

FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL IOWA. LOOKS LIKE MAIN CONVECTION 

IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF CWA 

THRU THE AFTN. 

  

LATEST RUC/ETA INFO CONTINUES STRENGTHENING CAP OVER CWA 

TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. 

ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN 

GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FOR MAIN MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SE U.S. NOT 

THE GULF. NOT UNTIL FRIDAY DOES SOME GULF INFLUENCES SET UP. ANOTHER 

ASPECT IS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ADVECTING FROM THE SE ALLOWING FOR 

THE CAP TO WEAKEN BY THU/FRI. 



LATEST DAY ONE DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO THREAT OF SEVERE TSRA OVER 

FAR W/NW CWA. ALTHOUGH BELIEVE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SURFACE 

FEATURES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ORIENTATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 

SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN FAR W/NW CWA...UNTIL FRI/SAT. 

MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. 



PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ZONES FOR THU 

NIGHT/FRI AS SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO CWA ALONG WITH 

WEAKENING CAP/AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL 

LIKELY LEAVE OUT EXTREME SE ATTM. 



OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO EJECT MAIN UPPER LOW FROM THE SW U.S. 

INTO THE FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY SAT/SUN. THIS IS FURTHER WEST 

AND NORTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH MAIN ENERGY NOW EXPECTED NW OF 

CWA...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LESS. ALTHOUGH 

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PERSISTENCE. 



MAV NUMBERS ARE MORE REASONABLE DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES 

OF PRECIPITATION. 



CCF NUMBERS WILL BE SENT BY 330 AM. 



.SGF...NONE



JLT