866 FXUS63 KSGF 030631 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 130 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES... MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH DEW POINT AXIS FROM SE KS...TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. 06Z SURFACE FRONT WAS NORTH OF WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY. LIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. MCS FIRED ALONG DRY LINE/50H JET STREAK MAY PLAY A ROLE ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES OUT WEST...BUT CURRENT LOW 80S OR AROUND 80 SEEM A GOOD BIT EVEN WITH DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD. WITH DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.S. CONTINUING TO DIG...UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH S/SW FLOW OVER CWA. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A GOOD FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HEAVY RAIN ONCE MAIN JET ENERGY AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN...85H FLOW IS NOT WELL PRONOUNCED FOR RICH GULF MOISTURE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. QPF FIELDS AND POPS ALSO INCREASE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. CURRENT ZONES HAVE 30/40% OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO FRONTAL AXIS IN KANSAS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE OUT OF THE SW. WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE MAIN ACTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL FOLLOW MAV NUMBERS. CCF NUMBERS WILL BE SENT BY 315 AM. .SGF...NONE JLT  866 FXUS63 KSGF 030631 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 130 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES... MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH DEW POINT AXIS FROM SE KS...TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. 06Z SURFACE FRONT WAS NORTH OF WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY. LIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. MCS FIRED ALONG DRY LINE/50H JET STREAK MAY PLAY A ROLE ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES OUT WEST...BUT CURRENT LOW 80S OR AROUND 80 SEEM A GOOD BIT EVEN WITH DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD. WITH DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.S. CONTINUING TO DIG...UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH S/SW FLOW OVER CWA. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A GOOD FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HEAVY RAIN ONCE MAIN JET ENERGY AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN...85H FLOW IS NOT WELL PRONOUNCED FOR RICH GULF MOISTURE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. QPF FIELDS AND POPS ALSO INCREASE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. CURRENT ZONES HAVE 30/40% OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO FRONTAL AXIS IN KANSAS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE OUT OF THE SW. WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE MAIN ACTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL FOLLOW MAV NUMBERS. CCF NUMBERS WILL BE SENT BY 315 AM. .SGF...NONE JLT