593

FXUS63 KSGF 040800

AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

250 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST 

CHALLENGES.



FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT BUT 

APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED. SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED DURING 

THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS DECREASING IN 

COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. 



SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST 

U.S. LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GENERAL 

AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND FORECAST OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS.  

ALTHOUGH THE MESO-ETA HAD THE BETTER PLACEMENT WITH THE CURRENT 

FRONTAL POSITION.  



FOR TODAY...FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND 

TEMPERATURES.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY AND BECOME 

EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS ABOUT THE 

NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 



TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT 

DRAPED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 

FIRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN IMPULSE EJECTS NORTHEAST 

AROUND THE SOUTHWEST LOW.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT TO THE KANSAS 

BORDER BY DAYBREAK BUT LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE. 



ON SATURDAY...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM ABOVE MENTION CONVECTION WILL 

PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC 

FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE 

EPISODE TO SET OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 

THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.  THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO 

THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  



IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY 

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE 

AREA MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER 

MIDWEST.  WILL SEE SOME COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  



PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...



FCSTID = 11

SGF   79  60  77  59 /  30  30  40  40

JLN   78  60  75  59 /  40  30  50  40

UNO   82  60  80  59 /  20  30  30  40

VIH   78  60  78  59 /  30  30  40  40



.SGF...

MO...NONE.

KS...NONE.



FOSTER
















593

FXUS63 KSGF 040800

AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

250 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST 

CHALLENGES.



FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT BUT 

APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED. SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED DURING 

THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS DECREASING IN 

COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. 



SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST 

U.S. LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GENERAL 

AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND FORECAST OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS.  

ALTHOUGH THE MESO-ETA HAD THE BETTER PLACEMENT WITH THE CURRENT 

FRONTAL POSITION.  



FOR TODAY...FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND 

TEMPERATURES.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY AND BECOME 

EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS ABOUT THE 

NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 



TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT 

DRAPED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 

FIRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN IMPULSE EJECTS NORTHEAST 

AROUND THE SOUTHWEST LOW.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT TO THE KANSAS 

BORDER BY DAYBREAK BUT LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE. 



ON SATURDAY...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM ABOVE MENTION CONVECTION WILL 

PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC 

FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE 

EPISODE TO SET OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 

THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.  THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO 

THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  



IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY 

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE 

AREA MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER 

MIDWEST.  WILL SEE SOME COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  



PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...



FCSTID = 11

SGF   79  60  77  59 /  30  30  40  40

JLN   78  60  75  59 /  40  30  50  40

UNO   82  60  80  59 /  20  30  30  40

VIH   78  60  78  59 /  30  30  40  40



.SGF...

MO...NONE.

KS...NONE.



FOSTER