127 FXUS64 KSHV 020841 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 340 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2001 WILL BE USING A MIX OF AVN AND ETA DATA ON FORECAST. AVN SHOWING SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE WITH MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN ON UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. MEANWHILE...ETA HAS BEST INITIALIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES...AND WILL LOOK AT THESE TRENDS FOR MOST PART FOR SHORT RANGE. CURRENT OBS AND DERIVED IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUD ADVECTION AND SOUTH BREEZE ACROSS EAST TX. MORE ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT INCLUDING SOUTH WIND AND LOW CLOUDS AREAWIDE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON YIELDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TOWERING CUMULUS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OF MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS. TODAY LOOKING SIMILAR...BUT WITH PERHAPS LESS FORCING. THEREFORE... WILL DECIDE TO NOT ADD ANY POPS TODAY OR THROUGH PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY DURING DAY WILL SUFFICE BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL THROW IN CAUTION ON LAKES FOR WIND ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND 10 TO 15 MPH ELSEWHERE. MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPS AND WILL KEEP EVERYONE RUNNING ABOVE 80 DAYTIME DEGREES AND ABOVE 60 NIGHTTIME THROUGH PERIOD. SHV 84/65/86/62 1000 MLU 85/64/85/63 1000 TXK 84/66/84/63 1000 TYR 84/66/85/64 2100 LFK 84/67/86/64 2100 VII .SHV...NONE.  368 FXUS64 KSHV 020841 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 340 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2001 WILL BE USING A MIX OF AVN AND ETA DATA ON FORECAST. AVN SHOWING SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE WITH MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN ON UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. MEANWHILE...ETA HAS BEST INITIALIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES...AND WILL LOOK AT THESE TRENDS FOR MOST PART FOR SHORT RANGE. CURRENT OBS AND DERIVED IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUD ADVECTION AND SOUTH BREEZE ACROSS EAST TX. MORE ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT INCLUDING SOUTH WIND AND LOW CLOUDS AREAWIDE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON YIELDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TOWERING CUMULUS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OF MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS. TODAY LOOKING SIMILAR...BUT WITH PERHAPS LESS FORCING. THEREFORE... WILL DECIDE TO NOT ADD ANY POPS TODAY OR THROUGH PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY DURING DAY WILL SUFFICE BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL THROW IN CAUTION ON LAKES FOR WIND ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND 10 TO 15 MPH ELSEWHERE. MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPS AND WILL KEEP EVERYONE RUNNING ABOVE 80 DAYTIME DEGREES AND ABOVE 60 NIGHTTIME THROUGH PERIOD. SHV 84/65/86/62 1000 MLU 85/64/85/63 1000 TXK 84/66/84/63 1000 TYR 84/66/85/64 2100 LFK 84/67/86/64 2100 VII .SHV...NONE.