880 FXUS64 KSHV 021939 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 240 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2001 EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BELOW 750MB. A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN EAST TEXAS NEAR THE NORTH END OF TOLEDO BEND LAKE. MODELS INDICATING WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER NEAR MOBILE. SURFACE MAP SHOWING COLD FRONT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH THE DRY LINE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. MODELS DO NOT MOVE THE FRONT ANY CLOSER THAN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW STAYS IN THE ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETA AND AVN IS AVN IS SLOWER AND HAS UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN ETA. AFTER FRIDAY AVN KEEPS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WEST AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...WITH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING LOW FARTHER NORTH. SURFACE FRONT MAY NEVER MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH MRF FINALLY MOVES IT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN EL DORADO ARKANSAS AND MONROE LOUISIANA AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 80S. WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS FRIDAY BASED ON ETA PLACEMENT OF QPF AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IN EXTENDED...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY WEST AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER LOW. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR WORDING FOR CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SHV 64/85/63/84 0001 MLU 60/84/61/85 0000 TXK 65/84/65/83 0002 TYR 66/84/65/83 0002 LFK 66/85/65/84 0001 09 .SHV...NONE.  880 FXUS64 KSHV 021939 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 240 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2001 EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BELOW 750MB. A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN EAST TEXAS NEAR THE NORTH END OF TOLEDO BEND LAKE. MODELS INDICATING WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER NEAR MOBILE. SURFACE MAP SHOWING COLD FRONT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH THE DRY LINE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. MODELS DO NOT MOVE THE FRONT ANY CLOSER THAN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW STAYS IN THE ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETA AND AVN IS AVN IS SLOWER AND HAS UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN ETA. AFTER FRIDAY AVN KEEPS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WEST AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...WITH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING LOW FARTHER NORTH. SURFACE FRONT MAY NEVER MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH MRF FINALLY MOVES IT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN EL DORADO ARKANSAS AND MONROE LOUISIANA AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 80S. WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS FRIDAY BASED ON ETA PLACEMENT OF QPF AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IN EXTENDED...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY WEST AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER LOW. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR WORDING FOR CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SHV 64/85/63/84 0001 MLU 60/84/61/85 0000 TXK 65/84/65/83 0002 TYR 66/84/65/83 0002 LFK 66/85/65/84 0001 09 .SHV...NONE.