102 FXUS64 KSHV 031845 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 145 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 SEE NO REASON TO BUCK THE OBVIOUS FOR THIS FORECAST AS PERSISTENCE HAS WORKED WELL GENERALLY THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES COME THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN TIED TO THEM...BREAKING THE MONOTONY A LITTLE BIT. AREA CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING DUE IN PART TO INCREASING FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HELPING TO INDUCE LIFT IN A MINIMAL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY...PUTTING OUR WESTERN HALF IN A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION JET POSITION FOR SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE A TRAIN OF SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MORE INCLINED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WITH NO REAL TRIGGER TO HANG ANY STRONG RAIN CHANCES ON...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TRENDING THEM HIGHER FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE SAT NIGHT/SUN LEAVING MORE OF A WEST TO EAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. WE SHOULD BRIEFLY LOSE THE AFFECTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON SUNDAY...MINUS SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CONVECTION SUN AFTERNOON. COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN SETTING UP TO DRIVE A FRONT DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. LATEST AVN MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT ON MON. RETURN FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GREATLY IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT SO WILL RIDE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MAV/NGM MOS SOLUTIONS BUT BOTH APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS ON FRI/SAT. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13 SHV 63/82/65/80 0113 MLU 60/84/62/82 0012 TXK 65/81/65/80 1224 TYR 65/81/66/77 1235 LFK 66/83/66/81 1223 .SHV...NONE.  102 FXUS64 KSHV 031845 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 145 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 SEE NO REASON TO BUCK THE OBVIOUS FOR THIS FORECAST AS PERSISTENCE HAS WORKED WELL GENERALLY THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES COME THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN TIED TO THEM...BREAKING THE MONOTONY A LITTLE BIT. AREA CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING DUE IN PART TO INCREASING FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HELPING TO INDUCE LIFT IN A MINIMAL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY...PUTTING OUR WESTERN HALF IN A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION JET POSITION FOR SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE A TRAIN OF SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MORE INCLINED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WITH NO REAL TRIGGER TO HANG ANY STRONG RAIN CHANCES ON...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TRENDING THEM HIGHER FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE SAT NIGHT/SUN LEAVING MORE OF A WEST TO EAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. WE SHOULD BRIEFLY LOSE THE AFFECTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON SUNDAY...MINUS SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CONVECTION SUN AFTERNOON. COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN SETTING UP TO DRIVE A FRONT DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. LATEST AVN MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT ON MON. RETURN FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GREATLY IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT SO WILL RIDE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MAV/NGM MOS SOLUTIONS BUT BOTH APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS ON FRI/SAT. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13 SHV 63/82/65/80 0113 MLU 60/84/62/82 0012 TXK 65/81/65/80 1224 TYR 65/81/66/77 1235 LFK 66/83/66/81 1223 .SHV...NONE.