018

FXUS64 KSHV 040723

AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

220 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



INTERESTING WEEKEND SHAPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF TX...AND MAY AFFECT

OUR AREA TO A LESSER EXTENT. BAJA LOW WILL SWING AROUND BASE OF TROF

AND ENHANCE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND PANHANDLE

REGION OF TX. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULT TIME FOLLOWING UPPER LOW

ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE LOW WILL MOVE

FASTER AND CURVE MORE TO NORTHWEST THAN MODELS SHOW. AVN SEEMS TO

HAVE SOME CLUE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATING NE INTO KS THIS

WEEKEND. AS TROF BECOMES LESS SHARP...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE

AS GREAT AS CURRENTLY OVER CONVECTIVE REGIONS OF TX WHERE SATELLITE

ESTIMATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...DRIER MID LEVEL

AIR MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT MAINLY HEADING TOWARDS

EXTENDED...IF AT ALL...FOR OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY CHANGES TO

EXTENDED WILL BE TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR NORTH

PORTIONS OF AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CORRESPONDING CHANGES IN TEMPS

AND SKY CONDITIONS...WHILE LOW STILL MOVING NE THROUGH CENTRAL

PLAINS.



CONVECTIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL BLOW OFF WILL INCREASE DUE TO STRONG

WESTERLIES ALOFT. WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF DAYTIME HIGHS

TODAY...AND SOME TEMPS NOT EVEN REACHING 80 ON SATURDAY WITH EARLY

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINAL NOTE...LIMITED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS

THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF EAST TX LAKES IN LOW LEVEL SE

FLOW. WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY.



SHV 82/65/78/64  1133

MLU 86/62/82/64  0022

TXK 82/67/77/64  2244

TYR 81/67/76/63  2354

LFK 83/68/80/66  2332





VII



.SHV...NONE.








018

FXUS64 KSHV 040723

AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

220 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



INTERESTING WEEKEND SHAPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF TX...AND MAY AFFECT

OUR AREA TO A LESSER EXTENT. BAJA LOW WILL SWING AROUND BASE OF TROF

AND ENHANCE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND PANHANDLE

REGION OF TX. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULT TIME FOLLOWING UPPER LOW

ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE LOW WILL MOVE

FASTER AND CURVE MORE TO NORTHWEST THAN MODELS SHOW. AVN SEEMS TO

HAVE SOME CLUE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATING NE INTO KS THIS

WEEKEND. AS TROF BECOMES LESS SHARP...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE

AS GREAT AS CURRENTLY OVER CONVECTIVE REGIONS OF TX WHERE SATELLITE

ESTIMATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...DRIER MID LEVEL

AIR MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT MAINLY HEADING TOWARDS

EXTENDED...IF AT ALL...FOR OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY CHANGES TO

EXTENDED WILL BE TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR NORTH

PORTIONS OF AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CORRESPONDING CHANGES IN TEMPS

AND SKY CONDITIONS...WHILE LOW STILL MOVING NE THROUGH CENTRAL

PLAINS.



CONVECTIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL BLOW OFF WILL INCREASE DUE TO STRONG

WESTERLIES ALOFT. WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF DAYTIME HIGHS

TODAY...AND SOME TEMPS NOT EVEN REACHING 80 ON SATURDAY WITH EARLY

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINAL NOTE...LIMITED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS

THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF EAST TX LAKES IN LOW LEVEL SE

FLOW. WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR TODAY.



SHV 82/65/78/64  1133

MLU 86/62/82/64  0022

TXK 82/67/77/64  2244

TYR 81/67/76/63  2354

LFK 83/68/80/66  2332





VII



.SHV...NONE.