437

FXUS64 KTSA 020808

AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

308 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS 

NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO 

CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL 

BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVES 

MOVE BY IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY 

OR PERHAPS MOVE BACK NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MID 

AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN 

U.S.



WILL CONFINE MENTION OF POPS IN SHORT TERM TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD 

IN AREAS FROM TULSA NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH FRONT NOT LIKELY TO 

MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROGESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE SOME 

CONVECTION SPREAD EAST OFF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. OR AN OUTFLOW 

BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAME AREA. 

WHATEVER THE CASE...BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST 

OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT. REST 

OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.



EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 

CONTINUE. PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL 

HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...BUT SOLID PERSISTENT DECK OF 

CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH BLOWOFF CIRRUS FROM 

CONVECTION TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.



IN EXTENDED...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY IN ALL AREAS WITH THE IDEA THAT 

FRONT REMAINS WEST WITH NO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. EXPECT WIDELY 

SCATTERED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 

MONDAY PERIOD AS UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS OUT INTO PLAINS AND SURFACE 

FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN VICINITY.



FCSTID = 9

TUL   83  66  83  64 /  10  20  10  10

FSM   85  62  85  60 /   0   0  10  10

MLC   82  66  82  64 /   0   0  10  10

BVO   84  65  83  63 /  10  20  10  10

FYV   80  61  80  60 /   0   0  10  10

BYV   80  60  80  59 /   0   0  10  10

MIO   82  63  81  61 /   0  10  10  10

MKO   82  66  82  64 /   0  10  10  10

F10   83  66  83  64 /  10  20  10  10

HHW   81  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10



.TSA...

AR...NONE.

OK...NONE.