387 FXUS64 KTSA 021934 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 233 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 LOW CLOUDS FINALLY BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUD DECK ALSO MOVING SOUTH FROM KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH SKY FORECAST TONIGHT. FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST OK AND HAS BEEN RATHER SLOW TO MOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN NORTHWEST ZONES FOR TONIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF CWA STAYING DRY. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR NOW WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR POPS ON FRIDAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMING OUT ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A FEW SMALLER SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF STORMS TO OUR WEST THAT WOULD MOVE OUR WAY OVERNIGHT. THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS OPPOSED TO THE MUCH WETTER ETA. PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS...WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE POPS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED LOOKS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE TODAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW GETS PULLED NORTH AND THEN ROTATES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOGAPS AND MRF SEEM TO AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FALLING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY MAKE A FEW TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT EXTENDED. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW. HOWIESON FCSTID = 44 ...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TUL 66 83 64 81 / 20 10 10 20 FSM 62 85 60 84 / 0 10 10 10 MLC 66 82 64 81 / 0 10 10 20 BVO 65 83 63 82 / 20 10 10 20 FYV 61 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 61 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 10 MIO 63 82 62 82 / 10 10 10 10 MKO 64 82 63 81 / 10 10 10 10 F10 66 83 64 81 / 20 10 10 20 HHW 64 81 64 81 / 0 10 10 20 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  387 FXUS64 KTSA 021934 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 233 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 LOW CLOUDS FINALLY BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUD DECK ALSO MOVING SOUTH FROM KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH SKY FORECAST TONIGHT. FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST OK AND HAS BEEN RATHER SLOW TO MOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN NORTHWEST ZONES FOR TONIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF CWA STAYING DRY. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR NOW WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR POPS ON FRIDAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMING OUT ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A FEW SMALLER SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF STORMS TO OUR WEST THAT WOULD MOVE OUR WAY OVERNIGHT. THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS OPPOSED TO THE MUCH WETTER ETA. PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS...WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE POPS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED LOOKS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE TODAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW GETS PULLED NORTH AND THEN ROTATES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOGAPS AND MRF SEEM TO AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FALLING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY MAKE A FEW TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT EXTENDED. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW. HOWIESON FCSTID = 44 ...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TUL 66 83 64 81 / 20 10 10 20 FSM 62 85 60 84 / 0 10 10 10 MLC 66 82 64 81 / 0 10 10 20 BVO 65 83 63 82 / 20 10 10 20 FYV 61 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 61 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 10 MIO 63 82 62 82 / 10 10 10 10 MKO 64 82 63 81 / 10 10 10 10 F10 66 83 64 81 / 20 10 10 20 HHW 64 81 64 81 / 0 10 10 20 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.