708 FXUS64 KTSA 030811 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 312 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WAS WEAKENING AND LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OSAGE...PAWNEE...AND CREEK COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. PLAN ON KEEPING FIRST PERIOD DRY IN ALL AREAS...BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION REGARDING NEED FOR LOW POPS FOR THOSE 3 WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS KEEPING SKIES BROKEN TO OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST ZONES. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A RUN FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM DRAWS A LITTLE CLOSER. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS SUSTAIN BANDS OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. IN EXTENDED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. FCSTID = 9 TUL 82 65 80 62 / 10 10 30 60 FSM 83 62 83 60 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 81 65 80 63 / 10 10 20 50 BVO 81 64 80 62 / 10 10 30 60 FYV 80 60 80 61 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 81 60 80 61 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 80 62 80 61 / 0 10 20 40 MKO 82 64 80 62 / 0 10 20 60 F10 82 65 80 62 / 10 10 30 60 HHW 81 65 81 64 / 10 10 20 40 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  708 FXUS64 KTSA 030811 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 312 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WAS WEAKENING AND LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OSAGE...PAWNEE...AND CREEK COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. PLAN ON KEEPING FIRST PERIOD DRY IN ALL AREAS...BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION REGARDING NEED FOR LOW POPS FOR THOSE 3 WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS KEEPING SKIES BROKEN TO OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST ZONES. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A RUN FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM DRAWS A LITTLE CLOSER. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS SUSTAIN BANDS OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. IN EXTENDED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. FCSTID = 9 TUL 82 65 80 62 / 10 10 30 60 FSM 83 62 83 60 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 81 65 80 63 / 10 10 20 50 BVO 81 64 80 62 / 10 10 30 60 FYV 80 60 80 61 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 81 60 80 61 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 80 62 80 61 / 0 10 20 40 MKO 82 64 80 62 / 0 10 20 60 F10 82 65 80 62 / 10 10 30 60 HHW 81 65 81 64 / 10 10 20 40 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.