065 FXUS64 KTSA 031539 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1040 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND THEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER UTAH THIS MORNING AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING US THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ABUNDANT CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MID OR HIGH CLOUDS...BUT A FEW LOW CEILINGS OBSERVED AT KMLC AND KOKM. DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM IN EXTREME WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER SHOWER JUST NORTH OF GUTHRIE. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY...AND SHOULD MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SO MAY ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE UPSTREAM AT THE 850MB AND 500MB LEVELS...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KSGF AND KOUN HAD MOISTURE NEAR 700MB. SO...NOT REAL OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE BROKEN AND SUN WILL COME OUT FROM TIME TO TIME. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ON TRACK GIVEN ANY AMOUNT OF SUN...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS IN THE MORNING UPDATE. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 16Z...AND WILL UPDATE MAINLY FOR CLOUD/DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. FCSTID = 6 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. TAYLOR  065 FXUS64 KTSA 031539 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1040 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND THEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER UTAH THIS MORNING AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING US THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ABUNDANT CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MID OR HIGH CLOUDS...BUT A FEW LOW CEILINGS OBSERVED AT KMLC AND KOKM. DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM IN EXTREME WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER SHOWER JUST NORTH OF GUTHRIE. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY...AND SHOULD MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SO MAY ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE UPSTREAM AT THE 850MB AND 500MB LEVELS...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KSGF AND KOUN HAD MOISTURE NEAR 700MB. SO...NOT REAL OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE BROKEN AND SUN WILL COME OUT FROM TIME TO TIME. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ON TRACK GIVEN ANY AMOUNT OF SUN...BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS IN THE MORNING UPDATE. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 16Z...AND WILL UPDATE MAINLY FOR CLOUD/DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. FCSTID = 6 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. TAYLOR