095 FXUS64 KTSA 032011 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 310 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST...AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW ACROSS UTAH...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAY INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 12-14C RANGE. 500MB MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...SO AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH NO DRIER AIR EXPECTED. MESOETA SHOWS SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 700MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 18Z SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE ETA/AVN MODELS. THIS FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FCSTID = 6 TUL 67 81 65 76 / 10 30 60 60 FSM 64 83 62 78 / 0 10 30 60 MLC 66 80 63 76 / 10 20 60 60 BVO 64 80 63 74 / 10 30 60 60 FYV 62 80 61 74 / 0 10 30 60 BYV 62 80 61 74 / 0 10 30 60 MIO 61 79 60 72 / 0 10 30 60 MKO 67 81 65 76 / 10 30 60 60 F10 67 81 65 76 / 10 30 60 60 HHW 65 81 62 75 / 10 10 60 60 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. TAYLOR  095 FXUS64 KTSA 032011 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 310 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST...AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW ACROSS UTAH...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAY INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 12-14C RANGE. 500MB MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...SO AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH NO DRIER AIR EXPECTED. MESOETA SHOWS SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS HINT AT THIS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 700MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 18Z SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE ETA/AVN MODELS. THIS FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FCSTID = 6 TUL 67 81 65 76 / 10 30 60 60 FSM 64 83 62 78 / 0 10 30 60 MLC 66 80 63 76 / 10 20 60 60 BVO 64 80 63 74 / 10 30 60 60 FYV 62 80 61 74 / 0 10 30 60 BYV 62 80 61 74 / 0 10 30 60 MIO 61 79 60 72 / 0 10 30 60 MKO 67 81 65 76 / 10 30 60 60 F10 67 81 65 76 / 10 30 60 60 HHW 65 81 62 75 / 10 10 60 60 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. TAYLOR