103 FXUS64 KTSA 040225 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 925 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HAS DRIFTED SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVED NORTH INTO KANSAS. THE NEW 00Z ETA DOES NOT BRING THIS BOUNDARY MUCH IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE LOW POPS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RESULTANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE LAYER HAS ALL BUT ERODED THE MASSIVE CAPPING INVERSION THAT WAS PRESENT 24 HOURS AGO. STILL WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER AREA...THE RISK OF ANY DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TOO SMALL TO MENTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN MOST EVERYBODY SHOULD GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MOST MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA LIGHTER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE OCCUR. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEARING THE FORECAST MINIMUMS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS THICK AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS FEEDING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA FROM ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN TO NEAR 60. THUS WILL NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT AND ALSO ADJUST THE DEWPOINT FORECAST IN THE RDF FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. PLATE  103 FXUS64 KTSA 040225 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 925 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HAS DRIFTED SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVED NORTH INTO KANSAS. THE NEW 00Z ETA DOES NOT BRING THIS BOUNDARY MUCH IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE LOW POPS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RESULTANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE LAYER HAS ALL BUT ERODED THE MASSIVE CAPPING INVERSION THAT WAS PRESENT 24 HOURS AGO. STILL WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER AREA...THE RISK OF ANY DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT APPEARS TOO SMALL TO MENTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN MOST EVERYBODY SHOULD GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MOST MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA LIGHTER THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE OCCUR. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEARING THE FORECAST MINIMUMS IN SOME LOCATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS THICK AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS FEEDING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA FROM ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN TO NEAR 60. THUS WILL NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT AND ALSO ADJUST THE DEWPOINT FORECAST IN THE RDF FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. PLATE