133 FXUS64 KTSA 040835 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS REGISTERED 4.4 ON THE RICHTER SCALE AT 142 AM...AND EFFECTS IN THE FORM OF A SLIGHT TREMOR FELT HERE AT THE TULSA OFFICE. PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK THIS MORNING ...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY OUT WEST WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER AZ. MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW...BUT ALL AGREE LIFTING LOW OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...PRECIP MAY TRY TO NOSE INTO WRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS IN THE WEST. SEVERAL S/W'S TO MOVE AROUND THE LOW...OFFERING THE FA A GOOD CHANCE AT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY PART OF SUNDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. MODELS ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WRN ZONES. DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS FA ON SUNDAY PER AVN... SO WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA ON MONDAY...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY WITH H85 BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THINGS CLEAR OUT FOR THE TUES-WED TIME FRAME. NEW MRF DEVELOPS SFC LOW ACROSS GULF COAST THURSDAY AND BRINGS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS KS/MO. MOISTURE RETURN NOT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL LEAVE THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FCSTID = 23 .PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TUL 81 62 67 61 / 20 80 80 70 FSM 83 61 65 60 / 10 50 60 70 MLC 82 63 68 62 / 20 80 80 70 BVO 80 60 66 59 / 30 80 80 70 FYV 80 60 64 59 / 10 50 60 70 BYV 80 60 64 59 / 10 50 60 70 MIO 80 60 64 59 / 10 60 70 70 MKO 81 62 67 61 / 20 80 80 70 F10 81 62 67 61 / 20 80 80 70 HHW 82 63 68 61 / 20 80 80 70 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.  133 FXUS64 KTSA 040835 AFDTUL EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS REGISTERED 4.4 ON THE RICHTER SCALE AT 142 AM...AND EFFECTS IN THE FORM OF A SLIGHT TREMOR FELT HERE AT THE TULSA OFFICE. PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK THIS MORNING ...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY OUT WEST WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER AZ. MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW...BUT ALL AGREE LIFTING LOW OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...PRECIP MAY TRY TO NOSE INTO WRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS IN THE WEST. SEVERAL S/W'S TO MOVE AROUND THE LOW...OFFERING THE FA A GOOD CHANCE AT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY PART OF SUNDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. MODELS ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WRN ZONES. DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS FA ON SUNDAY PER AVN... SO WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA ON MONDAY...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY WITH H85 BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THINGS CLEAR OUT FOR THE TUES-WED TIME FRAME. NEW MRF DEVELOPS SFC LOW ACROSS GULF COAST THURSDAY AND BRINGS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS KS/MO. MOISTURE RETURN NOT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL LEAVE THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FCSTID = 23 .PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TUL 81 62 67 61 / 20 80 80 70 FSM 83 61 65 60 / 10 50 60 70 MLC 82 63 68 62 / 20 80 80 70 BVO 80 60 66 59 / 30 80 80 70 FYV 80 60 64 59 / 10 50 60 70 BYV 80 60 64 59 / 10 50 60 70 MIO 80 60 64 59 / 10 60 70 70 MKO 81 62 67 61 / 20 80 80 70 F10 81 62 67 61 / 20 80 80 70 HHW 82 63 68 61 / 20 80 80 70 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.