STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 W SGF 20 NE SZL 35 N IRK 35 SSW DBQ 25 WNW RFD 20 WNW BEH
   35 SE AZO 35 W FDY 25 NW DAY 45 E BMG 30 W EVV 35 WNW CGI
   30 NE UNO UNO 35 SE SGF 15 W SGF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 SW BUF 15 N IPT 15 ESE NEL ...CONT... 35 E ILM 20 SW RDU
   45 S PSK 35 W TRI 30 NW HSV 15 NNW HEZ 55 S LFK 20 SE CLL 45 N CLL
   20 ESE DAL 35 SE MLC 45 SSW JLN 20 SE OJC 30 SSE DSM 30 NNE ALO
   20 NE VOK 35 NE GRB 25 SE APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E U31 30 NNW MHS
   25 SSW EUG 15 NE PDX 30 W ALW 35 NE MQM 25 N CPR 30 SSE AIA
   35 W LBF 30 ESE MCK 40 S HLC 20 SSE GCK 40 SSE LHX 50 SSW GUC
   45 N BCE 45 SSE ELY 10 E U31.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE VCT
   25 WSW NIR 25 ESE HDO 50 S SEP DUA 35 WSW JLN 20 SW FNB 25 NNW SUX
   50 SE FAR 10 NE INL ...CONT... 30 N SYR 15 ESE ISP ...CONT... CRE
   35 SSE CLT 35 NW AND 25 ENE ANB 25 S MEI 20 ENE BTR 40 SSE LCH.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
   SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW MOVING NEWD INTO MO AND IL. A TRAILING
   COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
   VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY...
   OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION ON DAY
   2. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
   MS VALLEY WITH 70 TO 75 DEWPOINTS ACROSS AR/MO/IL. AS THE UPPER
   TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND ENTERS THE CNTRL PLAINS...STRONG LOW-
   LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER ERN KS/WRN MO DRIVING A COLD
   FRONT SEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN
   THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND NE OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS SE IA/NRN MO.
   MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG
   OVER NERN MO/WRN IL. AS THE CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH THIS AIR
   MASS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS OUT OF THE
   SRN PLAINS...THE EXIT REGION WILL CROSS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SOMEWHERE
   ACROSS CNTRL-ERN MO/WRN IL MAXIMIZING THE WIND SHEAR. THE RESULTING
   STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
   TORNADOES GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS.
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
   DEVELOP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BY LATER IN THE EVENING...THE
   BROAD N-S BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A
   SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS IL/IN AND
   FAR WRN OH OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...AR/NRN LA/NE TX...
   CAP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.
   HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE THE CAP TO BREAK REMAINS IN QUESTION. MODELS
   ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WRN MO/ERN OK. IF LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORMS
   MAY FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GIVEN 40 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
   
   ...VA/NC...
   WARM SECTOR S OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD WILL PROVIDE MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   ABOVE 50 KT IN THIS REGION...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING...
   STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN THIS REGION. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS A
   POSSIBILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
    
   ..BROYLES.. 05/09/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z